It’s Your Decision
By
Ronald P. Stagno
Staff Meteorologist
And Mitigation Officer
Fort Bend County Office of Emergency Management
My family and I have lived in Fort Bend County for a little over 20 years. During that time I gave little thought to what we would do if a major hurricane (category 4 or greater intensity storm) were to threaten this community. No storm of that severity has come even close to this county over those years, and my family never had to consider the actions we should take to protect our lives and property, until now!
The National Weather Service has been talking about a hurricane moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico for over one week. We briefly glanced at the TV weatherman as he described this storm, but it was only of category 2 intensity and hundreds of miles away from us last Friday. We had the typical busy, if not hectic, weekend, and never thought to monitor the latest news.
Then, Monday morning, immediately after we turned on the television, we learned that a Hurricane Watch would soon be issued for the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Port Arthur. The storm had increased to category 3 intensity and was expected to continue to worsen to category 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The weather personality on TV stated that this approaching hurricane could reach the Texas coastline as early as noon Wednesday. We heard all of that, but we live in Fort Bend County, an inland community, at least 60 miles from the Gulf of Mexico at it closest point. Why should we be more than just curious? What dangers could we possibly face from this weather phenomenon?
I had time on the way to work Monday to stop by the Fort Bend County Office of Emergency Management. I had no idea that they had such extensive weather analysis tools and that they could, and were happy to provide so much comprehensive information about how to protect your family and property when severe conditions threaten. The most startling knowledge I came away with was an understanding of the power of hurricanes and the severity of their impact on communities as much as 300 miles inland from a sea coast!
They describe the destructive forces contained within a hurricane as the “Triad of Destruction”. Three specific entities that individually have the power to cause massive damage and take human life. The first element of this deadly triad is the power of the storm surge. Over the Gulf of Mexico, even if an intense storm like “Hurricane Gilbert” was located there, only the low pressure near the center of the storm would cause the surface of the sea to rise 3 to 5 feet. This is of little consequence. However, as a hurricane nears a coastline, the intensity of the storm, combined with the speed of movement, the angle of approach and the slope of the continental shelf can combine to cause a storm tide (from a category 5 intensity hurricane) as high as 19 feet above normal along the upper Texas coastline. Waves would extend an additional 10 to 15 feet above this catastrophic death tide. In addition, when a tide of that magnitude moves into Galveston Bay, the tide funnels and its height magnifies. A storm tide height of 20 to 30 feet above sea level is possible along the western and northern shores of Galveston Bay.
A mound of water that high, striking within 20 miles west of Galveston, would cause incredible damage. Kemah, Sea Brook, Galveston Island, the Clear Lake area and all coastal communities within 10 miles of the upper Texas coastline would be under seawater ranging in depth from 5 to 30 feet above sea level.
Also, the rivers located within 50 miles east of where the storm made landfall would be filling up to between flood stage and bankfull with salt water and flowing northward, inland, instead of southward toward the Gulf. This could occur as far as 50 miles from the mouth of those rivers.
It was explained, that although coastal storm surge flooding itself could not threaten Fort Bend County, if a major hurricane were to make landfall within 20 to 30 miles west of the mouth of the Brazos River, then that river would change its direction of flow. The river would flow northward a little beyond Richmond, and fill to beyond flood stage with seawater. This alone could cause considerable damage to Fort Bend County residents living in homes along the Brazos River protected by levies. Even more ominous, what would happen if torrential rainfall occurs over Fort Bend and perhaps Austin and Waller Counties?
I had no idea that rising storm tides could affect Fort Bend County. Perhaps with my family’s busy schedule, we just had no time to think about such consequences.
As startling as that revelation was, an understanding of the second element in the “Triad of Destruction” caused me to have great concern for the safety of my wife, daughter and myself. Sixty years ago, the homes in most southeast Texas communities were built especially strong, the Emergency Management Specialist stated. Many structures had double walls. The floors of residences were anchored to their foundations and their roofs secured to the walls. Today’s homes generally fail to measure-up to vintage 1940 houses. In so many cases, the flooring of modern homes is not secured by bolts, but by concrete nails. Bricks are attached to fiberboard. Likewise, roofs are attached to the walls by toe-nailing.
“What is the result of this decrease in structural integrity?” I asked. Our Office of Emergency Management explained that one of the leading research companies in structural failure caused by severe weather, Haag Engineering Company, has documented that damage caused today is approximately twice that experienced 60 years ago from hurricane sustained winds, tornadoes and downbursts. (Downbursts are defined as downward rushing winds occurring in some intense thunderstorms that can cause damage comparable to that resulting from tornadoes.) It is the strength and duration of the wind that causes the damage!
When tornadic damage is compared to destruction caused by hurricanes, a
startling correlation is observed. A sustained 60 mph wind, less than a category
1 hurricane, blowing for 3 to 4 hours, has the same magnitude of destruction as a tornado with 100 mph winds lasting for one minute (the maximum winds in tornadoes usually prevail only for one minute or less).
A sustained 120-mph wind, the approximate intensity of a category 4-intensity hurricane at its landfall location, causes the same amount of damage as a tornado with 200-mph winds. That is comparable to the destruction at Jarrell, Texas, in May of 1997, when homes were swept from their concrete slabs.
A sustained 180-mph wind, like that produced by Hurricane Gilbert at its maximum intensity over the Caribbean Sea, in September of 1988, lasting for 3 to 4 hours, would create almost total destruction. Winds of that magnitude create damage comparable to that caused by the strongest tornado on earth, one with sustained winds over 300-mph.
Engineers tell us that a sustained wind of 95-mph, lasting only for one minute, will cause major damage to the average brick-veneer home.
In addition to sustained hurricane winds, there are other equally destructive wind forces. Hurricanes span tornadoes, sometimes in large numbers. The record for that phenomenon goes to Hurricane Beulah, September 1967. That storm spanned 141 tornadoes, 64 in just 24 hours. Hurricane Celia, in August of 1970, produced as many as 50 downbursts, each one with winds of 125 to 150 mph, causing great damage.
This information about wind forces is scary if not frightening, I thought. I asked, “How does it relate to a Fort Bend County resident’s concerns?” They then showed me the latest information on how the “Tropical Prediction Center” determines the sustained strength and wind gust associated with land-falling hurricanes inland. I now realized how much danger we were in!
The Tropical Prediction Center, previously known as the “National Hurricane Center”, now determines the magnitude of hurricane winds inland in the following way:
Based on the sustained wind of a tropical system when it reaches landfall, the sustained wind inland will decrease to one-half that of the storm when it crossed the coast 11 hours later. What does that mean for Fort Bend County? If a land-falling category 4 hurricane struck Palacios, Texas with sustained winds of 140 mph gusting to 180 mph and was moving northward at 10 mph, then that storm’s winds would not decrease to sustained 70 mph with gusts to 100 mph until it was located about 110 miles inland.
Therefore, Fort Bend County would likely experience sustained winds of 100 mph to 120 mph with gusts as strong as 140 mph!
Any remaining thought I had that we were safe when hurricanes threaten because we did not live along the coast was now gone! But, “You said that there were three elements in the hurricane “Triad of Destruction”, I stated. “Yes”, the Emergency Management staff member said to my comment. “You saw to some extent what can happen when that last item in the triad comes into play last June, But”, he uttered, “You need to understand the whole truth”.
The third element in the hurricane “Triad of Destruction” is torrential rainfall. “OK”, I said. “How much rain can be expected from a hurricane?” I asked. “The answer will amaze you”. He said. It did more than that. The magnitude of his comments left me speechless. “You can determine the answer to that question yourself.” He said. “All you need to do is divide the forward speed of movement of the storm into 100. If the hurricane was moving at 5 miles an hour and was expected to pass very close to your location, then divide 5 into 100. The answer is 20, and that means that 20 inches of rainfall are possible at your location over a 24 to 48 hour time period. A rainfall of that magnitude would cause tremendous flooding, no matter where you live or what your elevation might be.
In addition, if the Brazos River is full to bankfull with salt water, flowing northward instead of southward due to the storm surge, and all the rain water drains into the river, then river flooding of epic proportions would likely occur.
The Emergency Management Specialist summed up the situation for me with these words:
If a category 4 hurricane were to make landfall near Palacios, Texas and move northward at 10 mph, Fort Bend County would be devastated. The Brazos River would begin to flow northward past Richmond and rise due to salt-water intrusion to above flood stage. Sustained winds of over 100 mph to as much as 120 mph would lash the county with wind gusts reaching as high as 140 mph. In addition, tornadoes and downbursts would likely cause even more damage. If the storm moved across the county, then a rainfall of 10 to 15 inches within a 24 hour time frame would likely occur.
I now understood the risks that my family faced. But, what can we do to protect ourselves and when should we do it? “Can you help us again by advising us on what, when, and how to take action in the face of this potential disaster to us and our community?” I asked.
Now that you understand the risks, you must ask yourself five questions. First, when do I not want to be here, in Fort Bend County, with this storm approaching? Second, what do I take with me? Third, where do I go? Next, how do I get to my determined safe location? And finally, when do I leave?
The first question may be the easiest of them all to answer. Does my family and I stay and risk injury or worse, or do we flee to a place of safety? The Emergency Management Specialist explained, “If the approaching tropical system is a category 1, category 2 or possibly even a lower level category 3 hurricane, then you might consider remaining at home and “sheltering-in-place” (that means putting as many walls as possible between your family and the severe weather howling outside-like taking shelter in a bathroom or reinforced closet). However, if the storm is an upper level intensity category 3, category 4 or, God forbid, a category 5 intensity hurricane, then he advised that we should definitely evacuate to a safer location!
“Please note”, he advised. “To stay or to leave is an individual family decision.
If a family is comprised of babies, ill relatives or very elderly members, people who could become severely stressed from prolonged periods of time without electricity (no air conditioning or refrigeration to keep medicines or baby’s formula cold), then perhaps they should consider temporarily relocating to a safer place even when a category 1 or category 2 storm threatens”.
With respect to the second question:
1. You should take enough clothing for at least one week for everyone in your family.
2. Take a three day supply of food that does not need cooking, refrigeration or a large amount of water to be edible for each member of your family.
3. Have enough water on hand to last for three days for everyone in your family (at least one-gallon per family member per day).
4. Bring all of your important papers (property; health and life insurance policies; real estate records; bank and investment documents; social security cards; birth certificates; and a video tape tour of each room of your home and any other property you own showing furniture and appliances.
5. Pets and pet food (enough pet food to last at least one week for each animal), as long as you are not planning on staying in a Red Cross Shelter. If you go to a shelter, you must make other arrangements for your pets.
6. Any medications your family members may be taking, including written prescriptions if they are available or you can secure them. Don’t forget any medications your pets may need.
The next question to be answered is where do we go? You should ask yourself these questions:
1. How far away do I want to try to get? I recommend at least 150 miles inland, northward. Not to the west or the east, but only to the north! These powerful storms often change direction of movement quickly and tend to go either west or east if they are moving slowly.
2. Is there a friend or relative that I can stay with?
3. Do I know the name and phone number of a hotel or motel where I want to go?
4. Do other members of my family, not including those who will be with me, know where we are going and how to contact us?
The fourth question is how do we get to our chosen place of safety? The following are some question that might help with this decision:
1. What secondary roads can I use that will keep me off of major U.S. or state highways?
2. Are there service stations along this route to provide fuel and a brief rest?
3. Once you are on those chosen roads, are there places where you can exit that road and try another route if traffic becomes too excessive and progress too slow?
The final question is when do we leave? That is perhaps the most important question of them all!
NOTE - You can not rely on any governmental entity to tell you when you should relocate to a safer location! In the past, some were concerned about being sued in court if they did or did not recommend evacuation. Others feared legal action against them and criticism from the public for not having the resources or the capability to provide transportation for their citizens who had no one else to turn to. A few even said that evacuation was simply not possible, so why say anything.
“I believe the public at least must be given an opportunity to make their own decisions on what to do to protect themselves”, the Fort Bend County Emergency Management Specialist said.
“There is just too much politics in this consideration for your family’s safety”!
Here are some guidelines to consider:
1. A New Texas A&M report, just released, states that after considerable research they have determined that, if an evacuation recommendation was issued for the Greater Houston area, it would take at least 30 hours to go 40 miles! That is an excellent description of “Grid-lock”.
2. Texas is not a “Mandatory Evacuation State”. Louisiana is, but not Texas! In Texas, only a recommendation to relocate to a safer area is allowed by law!
3. The last place you would ever want your family to be is in a car, stranded on a highway, traveling only 1 to 2 miles an hour, when winds increase to over 100 mph.
Having addressed the political side of recommendations to evacuate, the Texas A&M study, and the worst situation you could imagine yourself in, the following is my personal advise to you, a concerned Fort Bend County citizen:
If it is your decision to evacuate to a safer location, I recommend that you begin doing so when you hear that the Emergency Management Office on Galveston Island has recommend that the citizens of that community evacuate the entire island (not just Bolivar Peninsula, but all of the island).
Some people will tell you that is not necessary, that it is easier and quicker to flee to safety from Fort Bend County because we are located inland, away from the coast, and our citizens would not have to go through Houston. It seems logical, but the problem is that many Houston residents know about our roads and will chose to use them for their evacuation routes. If you wait, there may not be enough room on the evacuation route you choose for you!
You can relocate to a much safer location if a major hurricane threatens Fort Bend County, even if that safe place is 150 miles away. All you must do is understand what I have told you and begin your evacuation following the recommendation I provided. The Decision Is Yours!
If You Choose To Remain In Your Home – Shelter-In-Place
Our Emergency Management Office advised that if we choose to remain in our home, we should do the following:
1. Have on hand enough food to last for three days for each member of your family that does not need refrigeration, cooking or a large amount of water to be edible.
2. Have (store) enough water for each member of your family to last three days (one gallon per family member per day, plus an additional one gallon per family member per day for sanitary uses).
3. Have emergency electrical lighting-flash lights, with extra batteries and bulbs. Do not use candles or lanterns!
4. Have enough prescription medicines to last for at least one week for each family member requiring them.
5. Have a comprehensive first aid kit.
6. Collect your important documents and keep them in one safe location of your choice.
7. Fill the fuel tank (tanks) in all of your vehicles.
8. Have at least one working battery-operated radio and perhaps a battery- operated TV, with plenty of extra batteries.
The Fort Bend County Office of Emergency Management provided all of this information so that my family and I would be in a position to make the decisions that only we can make for the protection of our property and ourselves.
They also explained that, should the worst happen, our being struck by an upper level category 3, category 4 or category 5 hurricane, they would put into action very comprehensive plans to help this community recover from such a disaster.
If that were to happen, their office would be open 24 hours a day for months.
It is nice to say “if”, but the proper and correct word is “when”, the Emergency Management spokesperson said quietly. Some day this disaster will inevitably occur. Furthermore, every Fort Bend County resident who lives in this county long enough will have to respond to a major hurricane threat at least one to three times in their lives! Certainly, flooding and severe thunderstorms occur much more frequently (several times every year) and cause a fair amount of damage, but when a major hurricane threatens, the damage can and usually is catastrophic to the communities it strikes.
“When that time comes for us”, he cautioned, “the plans Fort Bend County citizens have made and the actions they choose to take to protect their
families are their decisions”. “However”, he concluded, “we, your Office of Emergency Management, will help you in any way and to whatever extent we can”!
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